Modi Sees Third Term Prospect, Opposition Surges
Narendra Modi’s likelihood of securing a third term as Prime Minister seems promising, with the NDA approaching the 300-seat mark. However, the day is marked by a notable resurgence of the Opposition, exceeding the modest expectations set by exit polls.
The BJP, aiming for 370 seats and setting a target of 400-plus for the NDA, appears to be falling short. By 5 pm, the BJP is leading in 241 seats, with the NDA at 296. In contrast, the INDIA bloc is ahead in 228 seats, with the Congress leading in 100.
Uttar Pradesh, with its 80 Lok Sabha seats, emerges as a setback for the BJP. The INDIA bloc, particularly the Samajwadi Party and Congress, leads in over 40 seats as of 3 pm, while the BJP trails in the mid-thirties. This state, a BJP stronghold in previous elections, had earlier been predicted to favor the party.
Other crucial battleground states also show challenges for the BJP. In West Bengal, the BJP leads in only 11 seats at 3 pm, while Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is ahead in 31 seats.
In Maharashtra, internal dynamics within the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have influenced the BJP’s performance. The Uddhav Thackeray faction leads in 11 seats, Shinde Sena in 5, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction in 1, and Sharad Pawar in 7. The BJP and Congress are closely matched, with 12 and 11 seats, respectively.
Despite setbacks, the BJP offsets its losses with gains in Odisha, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and to some extent, Telangana.
In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu is poised for a significant victory, leading in 158 out of 175 constituencies, with his oath ceremony expected on June 9. In Odisha, the BJP hopes to end Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal’s 25-year rule.
The campaign leading up to the election was intense and prolonged, with the voters’ sentiments proving challenging to discern. Despite exit polls predicting over 400 seats for the BJP-led NDA, the opposition consistently dismissed these projections, citing historical variations in exit poll accuracy.
The BJP’s campaign strategy emphasized development, economic progress, and a vision for India’s 100th Independence anniversary, highlighting achievements such as the abolition of Article 370 and the construction of the Ayodhya Ram temple.
Unlike the fragmented opposition of 2019, this time, the opposition launched a more cohesive offensive against the ruling coalition. Although initially fragmented, with internal contests like Congress vs. Trinamool in Bengal and Congress vs. AAP in Punjab, the narrative around constitutional changes and reservation policies gained traction.
Voting was held for 543 Lok Sabha seats across seven phases, culminating on Saturday, with the majority mark set at 272.
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